For first time I heard about The Good Judgment Project™ (which I will call in short - 'GJP') while reading an article on an Internet edition of newspaper. It was said there, that when it comes to predicting future events and aftermaths of ongoing affairs, GJP make better predictions than any intelligence agency in the world. So I checked the official website of this project, which is http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/. The GJP is a continuation of the "IARPA Ace Project", a government crowdsourcing project, which later funded the GJP project and made it publicly available. Everyone can register and become a part of crowd wisdom mechanism. On the main website of GJP there is a witty video introduction of the main idea of crowdsourcing, introducing historical influence of Francis Galton struggles on statistical predictions (famous question for a weight of an ox), with insertion of opinions made by i.e. Jimmy Wales (founder of Wikipedia, he stated that GJP is *exactly* like Wikipedia.. well, both are crowdsourcing systems :) ).
Sample questions which GJP is asking to the participants:
- Will Russia take over Ukraine till 10th of May?
- Will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspect the Parchin Military Complex before 1st of April, 2014?
But there are also long-term affairs questioned:
- North Korea detonates nuclear warhead?
- UK intent to withdraw from EU? - Monti vacate PM of Italy?
What's more important here is that I like the idea of gamification here and semi-quality assurance. While yet I have no insights into algorithms used in the engine (Is it a variance of EM?), I read that GJP pays for good answers. User registration is limited only to college graduates, sometimes age is also an consideration. A user chooses a category on which he want to participate in predictions. There is a kind of "prediction market" where users bet using their reputation. Probably it prevents from lottery and spam activity. Only 1% of users is said to be "super-good foresighters".
I would especially welcome and encourage somebody, who already took participation in this system, to share his thoughts below. The project looks interesting, but it will probably take some time for me to test it whatsoever.
I am now struggling to publish a paper to a conference held at MIT (Massachusets Institute of Technology) this year. Sample topics expected and welcomed are i.e.:
human computation, social computing, crowdsourcing, wisdom of crowds (e.g., prediction markets), group memory and extended cognition
They provide very rich LaTeX submission template, which is nice. Finally, the submission deadline (extended) is January 15th.
More info at:
Idea for this website came up in the year 2013, in Poland at the Polish-Japanese Institute of Information Technology.
Purpose of this website is to present appendixes and additional comment, explanations about work presented by our team of editors, in the field of social informatics. I was inspired by the SocInfo regular scientific conferences held every year in different places in the world. Social informatics is still young and unemancipated field of computer science.